For the first time in the history of the 4th Republic, Ghanaian voters are faced with a choice between John Dramani Mahama and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, both hailing from the Northern descent. John Mahama Dramani Mahama has previously held the position of President, while Dr. Bawumia has not.

The New Patriotic Party has traditionally relied on their strongholds in the Ashanti region and the Eastern region to secure victory against the National Democratic Congress. 

However, given the current circumstances, the NPP cannot solely depend on these two traditional strongholds, despite their numerous initiatives in those areas. As a result, they have adopted a new strategy, including endorsing Dr. Bawumia, to challenge the NDC in their northern strongholds. 

Since the emergence of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the performance of the New Patriotic Party in the five northern regions has shown a significant improvement in terms of nominal votes.

In the 2020 elections, the NPP garnered 409,963 votes, representing 46% of the total valid votes cast, while the NDC received 476,550 votes, representing 53%. In the Savannah region, which is John Dramani Mahama's home region, the NPP secured 35% of the total valid votes cast, compared to the NDC's 63%.

Similarly, in the North East Region, which is Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia's home region, the NPP received 51% of the total valid votes cast, as opposed to the NDC's 47%.

In the Northern region, the NDC won by a margin of approximately 73,000 votes, a significant decrease compared to the past when Dr. Bawumia was not a factor, resulting in an equal split of parliamentary seats of nine (9) each.  Moreover, the NPP's votes in the Upper East and Upper West regions have notably increased since Dr. Bawumia entered the political scene.

Based on the data and various other factors, it is evident that Dr. Bawumia is poised to surpass John Mahama in terms of northern votes now that he is the candidate on the Presidential ballot.

 Dr. Bawumia has successfully garnered support from leaders in the five Northern Regions, including traditional authorities, religious leaders, opinion leaders, youth groups, and even members of opposing political parties. Notably, prominent chiefs such as the Bawkunaba, Buipewura Abdulai Jinapor II , Gwollu Traditional Council, and the Paramount Chief of Wechiau, among other great Northern paramount chiefs have expressed their support for him.

The bottom line, the people of the North have previously given John Mahama the opportunity to serve as President and have witnessed his performance in the five Northern Regions, particularly in the North East and Savannah regions, where their appeals for regional development through the creation of new region went unattended to . 

In contrast, through Dr. Bawumia's efforts, the people of the North have gained two new regions, along with significant infrastructural developments. Also the north has got an international airport,  first interchange, a Medical Drone Delivery center, factories, numerous Astroturfs, extensive road networks, healthcare facilities, and educational infrastructure all lobbied by Dr Bawumia. They believe that if Dr. Bawumia with his  demonstrated ability to secure such projects as Vice President, if given the chance to lead like John Mahama was, he will bring even greater progress to the region.

Moreover, among the two Northern candidates, Dr. Bawumia is perceived to be presenting a more compelling message to the people up north compared to John Mahama is not saying anything but relying on the economic challenges and the short memory of the people as he always say.

 In effect, If Dr. Bawumia manages to secure 50% of the Northern votes, the NPP stands a greater  chance of winning the election without heavily relying on the Ashanti region and the Eastern region. The 2024 elections are therefore set to make history not just because both candidates hail from the North, but also due to the pivotal role that Northern votes will play. 

Additionally, this year's election will mark a departure from the norm, as the economy is not expected to be the sole determining factor, with Ghanaians likely to acknowledge the massive projects of Nana Akufo Addo despite facing global economic challenges.

Written by; MR OWUSU

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